New poll suggests Latino voters may make the difference in four key states
October 7, 2008A significant percentage of Latino voters in key election states - Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada - are supporting Senator Barack Obama in the presidential election, according to a new national survey. In Florida the Latino vote is split evenly between Obama and Senator John McCain.
"The Latino vote will be critical in the Southwest and Florida, and results of this poll show very clearly that Latinos may well provide Sen. Barack Obama with the margin of victory," said Matt Barreto, a University of Washington professor of political science who is a co-partner on the research.
The survey, conducted between Aug. 18 and Sept. 10 also showed that an unprecedented number of Latinos may vote - nearly 90 percent in those states. Given the growing Latino electorate in states like Nevada, where 59,489 Latino voters have registered since 2004, a high Latino turnout could determine outcome of the national election, Barreto said.
Respondents also said the economy is their top priority. Nearly a third said they had trouble making mortgage or rent payments during the past year.
In 2004, all four Latino battleground states voted Republican. However in 2008, those states are leaning slightly toward Obama, a Democrat, according to poll averages collected by Real Clear Politics.
In large part, this leaning may be due to strong support for Obama among Latinos, Barreto said. In Colorado, Obama received 71 percent support from Latinos compared to 18 percent for McCain. In Nevada, Obama was favored 67 percent to 20 percent, and in New Mexico, 67 percent to 23 percent. In Florida, where Latinos have traditionally voted Republican, McCain drew 45 percent of the vote compared with 43 percent for Obama.
October 2008 (Latino Decisions/NALEO poll) CO NM NV FL Obama - strong 63% 61% 55% 35% Obama - not so strong 8% 6% 12% 8% Undec - lean Obama 3% 2% 4% 3% McCain - strong 15% 20% 14% 38% McCain - not so strong 3% 3% 6% 7% Undec - lean McCain 3% 3% 2% 3% TOTAL OBAMA 74% 69% 71% 46% TOTAL MCCAIN 21% 26% 22% 48%
Added together, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada hold 19 electoral college votes, and if only these three states change from a Republican majority to a Democratic one in 2008, Obama will receive 271 electoral college votes - and garner the presidency, Barreto said.
"As the electoral map takes shape, it's increasingly clear the Latino vote may be decisive," said Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials Educational Fund, which helped pay for the survey. "In key battleground states," he added, "Latino voters are ready to vote in huge numbers, and a significant percentage is still persuadable. Underestimating the Latino vote could be disastrous for either party."
Latino Decisions, a public opinion firm whose partners include Barreto, Stanford University political scientist Gary Segura and Pacific Market Research, telephoned 1,600 Latino registered voters drawn equally from official statewide files in the four states. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.7 percent for each state.
In 2008, the Latino vote is expected to increase to 9 million, or roughly 8 percent of voters. By comparison, 7.6 million Latinos voted in 2004 and 5.9 million in 2000.
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (MAY NAME TWO ISSUES) CO FL NM NV Jobs/Economy 48% 51% 55% 54% War in Iraq 27% 31% 34% 25% Health care 20% 17% 20% 13% Immigration reform 13% 11% 11% 27% Education 12% 14% 9% 15% Gas prices 12% 7% 9% 9% Taxes 6% 7% 5% 4% Homeland security 3% 8% 5% 6% Morals / values 2% 2% 4% 2% Something else 8% 8% 7% 5%
October 2008 (Latino Decisions/NALEO poll) State Obama McCain Colorado 74% 21% New Mexico 69% 26% Nevada 71% 22% Florida 46% 48% August 2008 (Latino Decisions poll) State Obama McCain Colorado 69% 24% New Mexico 68% 22% Nevada 67% 23% Florida 43% 47% November 2004 (Latinos - NEP exits) State Kerry Bush Colorado 68% 30% New Mexico 56% 44% Nevada 60% 39% Florida 44% 56%
Methodology
Latino Decisions surveyed 1600 Latino registered voters in 4 key states. Registered voters were identified using the complete voter registration databases for each state, and then merged with a Spanish-surname list from the U.S. Census. Phone calls were then randomly made to the phone list of registered voters.All respondents are verified to be Latino, and verified to be registered voters. The survey was conducted by telephone, and available in English and Spanish, depending on the preference of the Latino respondent.
Interview calls were made by Pacific Market Research in Renton, Washington. The survey carries a margin of error of 4.7% in each state.Latino Decisions is a joint effort of Pacific Market Research, Dr. Gary Segura, and Dr. Matt Barreto, both of whom are Senior Researchers at Latino Decisions and Professors at Stanford University and the University of Washington, respectively.
Background on the researchers:
Dr. Gary Segura is a Professor of Political Science at Stanford University. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Illinois in 1992. His work focuses on issues of political representation, and is focusing on the accessibility of government and politics to America's growing Latino minority. For more information on Dr. Segura, visit www.latinodecisions.com.
Dr. Matt Barreto is an assistant professor of political science at the University of Washington, and a founding member of the Washington Institute for the Study of Ethnicity and Race (WISER). He received his Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, Irvine. His research examines the political participation of racial and ethnic minorities in the United States. For more information on Dr. Barreto, visit www.latinodecisions.com.
For more information
For more information, contact Barreto at (206) 616-3584 or mbarreto@washington.edu. Segura is at segura@stanford.edu. Contact the National Association of Latino Elected Officials at: (213) 747-7606.Email Dr. Barreto here.